International ranking of national football teams. The new FIFA rating is a deception for Russia

WHAT HAPPENED ON SUNDAY

On Sunday, the FIFA council made a number of important decisions, one of which concerned the new formula used to calculate the coefficients of all national teams in the world. “After more than two years of studying various alternative options and comprehensive consultations with all confederations, the FIFA administration proposed a modified formula to the FIFA Council - a system that was approved today and will be used for the first time after the end of the World Cup in Russia,” reads an official statement on the website of the International federation.

"A group of sports specialists and statisticians have developed a formula based on the Elo method," FIFA said. Let me explain: Arpad Imre Ehlo is an American physicist of Hungarian origin who invented a system for calculating individual player odds used in chess. FIFA has previously used his method as a basis for ranking women's national teams. Now it's the men's turn.

Why was everything done? “To make the formula more precise, eliminate the possibility of ranking manipulation and ensure equal opportunities for all teams,” FIFA said.

HOW WILL IT WORK

Now the “weight” of the match is taken into account - relative strength opponents and the importance of each game. Depending on this, points will be added to the team’s coefficient or, on the contrary, it will decrease.

Friendly matches will be of less importance. And vice versa, heaviest weight will receive games from the final rounds of the World Cup.

In general, the formula looks like this:

P = Pbefore + I x (W - We)

Pbefore - the points that the team had before the match that is taken into account.

I - the importance of the match. It varies as follows:

I = 05 - for friendly matches that are not played on days established by the international calendar

I = 10 - for friendly matches played on days established by the international calendar

I = 15 - matches group stage League of Nations

I = 25 - play-offs and matches final stage League of Nations

I = 25 - qualifying matches for confederation championships (for example, European Championship) and World Cup

I = 35 - matches of the final tournaments of the confederation championships up to the quarterfinals

I = 40 - matches of the final tournaments of the confederation championships starting from the quarter-finals, as well as all matches of the FIFA Confederations Cup

I = 50 - matches of the final tournament of the World Cup until the quarterfinals

I = 60 - matches of the final tournament of the World Championship starting from the quarterfinals.

W - match result

1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss

We - expected result of the match

We = 1/10 (-dr/600) + 1)

After each game that is included in the official FIFA register, the computer program will recalculate the rating of each of the playing teams. This will happen for the first time in July after all 64 World Cup matches have been completed.

HOW WILL THIS AFFECT THE RUSSIAN TEAM

One of the main advantages of this rating system, FIFA said, is that it will “allow for a smooth transition” from the old system to the new one. In addition, points won several years ago will no longer lose their value, as happened before. And the national teams will no longer have to cheat by avoiding friendly matches. The confederation coefficient will disappear, which to a certain extent made the tasks of teams not from Europe and South America. Finally, the host of the World Cup will be able to avoid a serious drop in the rankings, which regularly occurred in past years.

The Poles, who were tricky with friendly matches some time ago (someone smart figured that the white-reds should give them up at a certain stage), are only 19th in this ranking.

It turns out that with an imperfect and unfair formula, someone managed to benefit, while others, like the Russian team, fell to the bottom. But now everyone is supposedly on “equal terms”.

But starting positions in these “equal conditions” are different. And it will not be easy for us to rise from this bottom, which is what 70th place looks like.

And there is a high probability that qualifying tournament At the 2022 World Cup we will have very strong opponents.

In key international competitions rating plays the most important role football clubs UEFA, which directly influences the distribution of teams. This list includes the most current calculations for each football club. It allows you to draw up the team grid as objectively as possible for the European Cup draw. Also, thanks to this rating, we can form a visual top of the best football clubs at the moment!
World Best Clubs List 2018

# Club A country Overall coefficient
1 "Real" Spain 162
2 "Atlético" Spain 140
3 "Bavaria" Germany 135
4 Barcelona Spain 132
5 Juventus Italy 126
6 "Seville" Spain 113
7 "PSG" France 109
8 "Man City" England 100
9 "Arsenal L" England 93
10 Borussia D Germany 89

As you can see, the best football club in the world as of the summer of 2018 is Real Madrid, which has confidently held its position for several seasons in a row. This significant achievement was made possible thanks to the super-successful performances of Los Blancos in the Champions League. In the main tournament of Europe "Galacticos" for last years won three big-eared trophies in a row, and previously consistently reached the late stages of the playoffs. That is why Real Madrid is deservedly the best football club in the world!

You can find a detailed list of the top 100 best clubs of 2018 at the end of this text. The ranking of football clubs is updated regularly. A recount takes place automatically at the end of each tournament round.

What influences the UEFA football club rankings? Based on the top list, a basket is determined into which a particular club falls into during the draw for the group stage of European Cup competitions.
It is in this way that it is decided who will go to sowing. It is worth recognizing that this is a great incentive. The higher the personal rating, the better chances get a weaker team as opponents, avoiding getting caught best clubs world football. As a result, the chances of qualifying for the playoffs are significantly increased. This is not only the main goal of each tournament participant, but also brings additional income to the club treasury. And, what is also important, it increases the current European coefficient, allowing you to be placed as high as possible in the 2018 ranking of football clubs.

Counting Rules

How do UEFA analysts calculate the ranking, which includes the best football clubs in the world? The coefficient of each club is calculated according to the success of its performances on the international stage - in the Champions League and Europa League. All data for the last 5 seasons is taken into account, the total calculation of which gives the final coefficient. To the results obtained, 1/5th of the coffee earned by the national association to which a particular team belongs is added. Accordingly, the higher the overall score, the closer to the top of the top football clubs this or that team is located.
The ranking of football clubs is compiled as follows. UEFA uses a specially designed gradation when awarding points. It differs for the Champions League and League of Legends. And all because the strongest play in the Champions League, including the best football club of our time - Real Madrid.

Champions League

Points in this tournament are awarded as follows:
0.5 points - if the team is eliminated in the 1st qualifying round;
1 point - if the team is eliminated in the 2nd qualifying round;
4 points - automatic accrual to all participants in the group round;


4 points - automatic accrual for reaching the playoffs;
1 point - for passing to each subsequent stage of the playoffs (1/8, 1/4, 1/2 and final).

Europa League

LE is considered the second strongest tournament held under the auspices of UEFA (however, the best football clubs also meet there). Accordingly, the “cost” of achievements in it is estimated to be slightly lower than in the Champions League:
0.25 points - if the team is eliminated in the 1st qualifying round;
0.5 points - if the team is eliminated in the 2nd qualifying round;
1 point - if the team is eliminated in the 3rd qualifying round;
1.5 points - if the team is eliminated in the qualifying playoffs;
2 points - automatic accrual to all participants in the group round;
2 points - for winning a group match;
1 point - for a draw in a group match;
1 point - for passing to each subsequent stage of the playoffs, starting from the 1/4 finals.

Calculation method for Lately has undergone some changes. Until 2008, 33 percent of the total club association points were added to the club coefficient, and until 2004 - as much as 50%. Through analysis and discussions in the press, this percentage was smoothly reduced to its current value. This is how we can determine the top football clubs in the world.

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Now after each match the team either gains points or loses. A weak team defeating a strong team will receive more points than a strong team defeating a weak team. Strong team, who loses to the weak, will lose more points than the weak, who loses to the strong. This is the basis of the Elo method (named after Arpad Elo, a Hungarian-American physicist).

More points will be awarded for victories in the playoffs of major tournaments than for victories in the group stage. Clarification: this applies specifically to victories. There will be no deductions for losses in the playoffs.

For victories in friendly matches, teams will receive/lose fewer points. Even fewer points will be awarded in friendlies that are not played in official dates FIFA. For example, freight trains during preparation for major tournaments.

More details

Calculation formula: points after match = points before match + match importance index * (match result – expected result)

Match indexes can be like this:

05 – freight trains outside official FIFA dates
10 – freight trains on official FIFA dates
15 – Nations League group stage matches
25 – playoffs and final of the League of Nations
25 – World Cup qualifying matches and continental tournaments (Euro, Copa America, etc.)
35 – matches of continental tournaments up to the quarter-finals
40 – matches of continental tournaments, starting from the quarter-finals. All FIFA Confederations Cup matches
50 – matches of the final stage of the World Cup up to the quarter-finals
60 – matches of the final stage of the World Cup, starting with the quarter-finals

Match result: win = 1; draw = 0.5; defeat = 0

The expected result is considered as follows: 1/(10^(- rating difference/600) + 1)

Give an example

The Russian team beats Saudi Arabia in opening match World Cup

In the formula we use “minus the difference”. So it's just 8.

2. We calculate the expected result: 1/(10^(8/600) + 1) = 0.49

3. We count the points after the match: 457 + 50 * (1 – 0.49) = 482

If the team loses to Saudi Arabia. Post-match points: 457 + 50 * (0 – 0.49) = 432

What are the advantages of this?

The main thing: now everything is simple and clear. Understanding the mechanics of the previous rating is more difficult. FIFA has tested this method in women's football. Everyone was happy. Elo is also used in chess and esports ratings.

This is much fairer than the average points system. Now the weak will advance greatly for winning over the strong, and freight trains will not lower their ratings, as was the case before.

What is the main disadvantage?

Continental tournaments like the African Cup and Asian Cup will be able to score points in the same way as the Euros or Copa America. Given the difference in class, this is not entirely fair. Although FIFA calls this a plus.

How was the previous rating calculated?

Why do we need a rating at all?

Used to draw baskets, FIFA gives ranking-based awards each year, and the FA, for example, uses FIFA ranking as one of their criteria when issuing work permits to foreign players.